Elevated risk of TC activity exists for New Caledonia, while normal activity is expected for  Vanuatu, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea and Tokelau (See Table 1 and Table 4; Figure 1, 2 & 3). Model SST, rainfall, and air pressure guidance favour near average TC activity for the 2020/21 Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone season. Fri 11 Dec, 2020 - 12:26 PM ET. world meteorological day; climate products. The coronavirus pandemic still dominates the global economic outlook heading into 2021, with the second wave of the virus prompting renewed national lockdowns in Europe and tighter restrictions in the US. The consensus forms the basis for the full season (November-April) outlook for Southwest Pacific TC activity (and risk) for the 2020/21 season. On average, around seven TCs affect the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR per season. A Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone climatology and linkages to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Knapp, and D.H. Levinson, 2012. Future work will evaluate (and validate) the outcome of each individual model vs the consensus-based approach. Therefore, all communities should remain alert and well-prepared for severe TC events. 2020-2021 Tropical Cyclone (TC) Season Outlook. For the historical TC tracks in the seasons we have selected as analogues, there is a very large spread for the location where each system underwent ETT that presents significant uncertainties for maritime navigation risks. Multi-model ensemble forecast air pressure anomaly (hPa), October-December 2020; red (blue) shades indicate above (below) normal air pressure; areas of below normal pressure in the tropics can indicate an increased potential for tropical cyclone genesis, Figure 8. West Coast, Alps and foothills, inland Otago, Southland. tropical cyclone outlook 2020/21; samoa weather app; how to install weather app; events. Maps of tropical cyclone risk (top) and overall seasonal outlook for the number of named cyclones interacting with an island group (bottom) based on the 2020-21 Island Climate Update tropical cyclone guidance. October 30, 2020 Funefe'ai Dikaiosune Atoa Tamaalii Latest News, Press Releases. For most of austral winter (June-August) and early spring 2020 (September), the ENSO system was neutral, but was progressing steadily toward La Niña (which we are now presently in). Temperatures are very likely to be above average (65% chance). Journal of Climate, 26(1): 3-25. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00077.1. Tropical storm (cyclone) and hurricane frequency (category 3 or higher): ECMWF seasonal guidance indicates a near normal amount of severe TCs. Cyclone outlook 2020-2021 season. There is strong agreement for above normal rainfall from New Caledonia to the Cook Islands, including most island groups in between (Figure 5 & 6). The NIWA and MetService assessment of named tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicates 8 to 10 named TCs could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2020 and April 2021. Learn More . SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK 2020/2021. Air flows may periodically favour a northwesterly direction instead of a more typical (for La Niña) northeasterly direction, which could influence rainfall distribution. We expect national home price growth for next year to be from -3% to +3% in nine of the 16 countries. Termine im iCalender Format (.ics) können in den gängigsten Kalender-Programmen wie bspw. Information on ECMWF model skill can be found here for: tropical cyclones, severe tropical cyclones, and ACE. View More Detail. The ICU consensus column is based on the combined outcomes for the three aforementioned types of seasonal outlook information. Routine issuance of the … A split of the analogue TC seasons into early (November – January) and late (February – April) periods suggests TC activity will be diminished relative to normal for the early part of the TC season, except near the north Coral Sea (Figure 4). Diamond, P.R. Elevated TC presence is expected in and around the Coral Sea and north Tasman Sea, especially during the late season between February and April. If current ocean and atmosphere trends continue, marine heatwave conditions will be possible in November and/or December. Atmospheric circulation patterns over French Polynesia and northern Australia indicate ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions are indicative of the emergence of La Niña. A synthesis of model atmospheric and SST guidance favour near average TC activity for the 2020/21 Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone season. The season will officially run from October 15 2020 to 30 April 2021, however, a tropical cyclone could form at any time between 1 July 2020 and 30 June 2021 and would count towards the season total. Minister inspects damage caused by cyclone to fishing harbour Outlook November 26, 2020 18:35 IST Minister inspects damage caused by cyclone to fishing harbour outlookindia.com For each year noted, that represents the start of the main development season (i.e. The SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) value for October (through the 26th) was +0.4 (on the La Niña side of neutral). Cyclone latest: Parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Puducherry will receive heavy rainfall. TCO-SP is a long-range tropical cyclone outlook based on a multi-variate statistical method generated using Poisson Regression (Magee et al., 2020) recently published in Scientific Reports. This means that some tropical cyclone tracks for the coming season, if La Niña fully matures, may have straighter trajectories than normal. Peak TC season in the SW Pacific Basin is usually from January to March. The outlook suggests a 66 per cent chance of more cyclones than average for the Australian region this season — and they are expected to form earlier than normal. Rainfall is most likely to be near normal in the north of the North Island and about equally likely to be near normal or below normal for all remaining regions. Abnormally warm ocean temperatures can have a profound impact on air temperatures over land and provide fuel to cyclones approaching from the north. Statistical prediction of weekly tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere. The domain for the seasonal outlook encompasses a basin that is defined by climatological properties of TC occurrences rather than geopolitical or meteorological service administrative boundaries (Diamond et al., 2012). Higher than normal air pressure is likely to continue in the New Zealand region through November, supportive of a continuation of a positive SAM. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was active over the Maritime Continent (Indonesia) and the western Pacific during October, superimposed on the La Niña base state (sinking air over the east-central Pacific and rising air over the western Pacific and Maritime Continent). It does not take a direct hit or a severe cyclone to cause significant damage or life-threatening weather. The main TC genesis region is expected to lie within a band between 10 – 12°S (northwest of Vanuatu) to the west of the International Date Line but shifted slightly west of normal. Vanuatu and New Caledonia typically experience the greatest TC activity, with an average of about two or three named cyclones passing close to those islands each year. Tropical cyclones are categorised in strength from 1 to 5, with 5 being the most intense. The year label notes the first month in the analogue year selection (i.e. Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (35% chance). We've developed a suite of premium Outlook features for people with advanced email and calendar needs. All analogue seasons had at least one cyclone of category 3 or greater strength, and a majority of the analogue seasons (4 out of 5) experienced a minimum of three severe cyclones (≥ category 3). Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for Northwest Australia. All rights reservedPrivacy Policy, 2016, Free phone within New Zealand: 0800 RING NIWA (0800 746 464) Contact details, Principal Scientist - Forecasting and Media, Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook, Air quality monitoring with low-cost sensors, ICES Expert Working Group Meetings – April 2017. Early season TC activity is expected to be largely reduced, except near Fiji, and a potential start to cyclone activity may also occur close to or after the New Year. Two of the five analogue years experienced at least one category 5 tropical cyclone, which we cannot rule out for this coming season. Warmer than local sea temperatures, sub-tropical winds, the persistence of high pressure, and strong climate model agreement support this outlook. New Zealand’s National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and Meteorological Service of New Zealand (MetService) formulated this seasonal tropical cyclone outlook, along with contributions from the University of Newcastle and meteorological forecasting organizations from the Southwest Pacific, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, MeteoFrance and the Pacific Island National Meteorological Services. Analogue, dynamical and deterministic model guidance for the SW Pacific show relatively good agreement for the coming season (Table 1). Our region is characterised by the phases 4, 5 and 6. The Cyclone Festival of Cycling attracts thousands of cyclists and spectators to the North East. The 2020–21 South Pacific cyclone season is a currently ongoing period of the year when most tropical cyclones form within the South Pacific Ocean to the east of 160°E. Chappell, and J. Renwick, 2014. Several analysts have published transportation outlook reports for 2021 that are calling for continued strength in the trucking markets. TCO-SP (University of Newcastle) deterministic model summary. Expected TC numbers are based on the NIWA Analogue method (see Table 2) and supported by the TCO-SP deterministic method. The NIWA and MetService assessment of named tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicates 8 to 10 named TCs could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2020 and April 2021. TCs in the Southwest Pacific usually develop between November and April, but occasionally they develop in October and May, and very rarely in June – August. NIWA, MetService, MeteoFrance, BoM, NOAA and Pacific Island National Meteorological Services will all continue to track the progression of ENSO and TC activity, with an update to this guidance in January 2021 if needed. Significant rainfall, damaging winds, and coastal inundation can occur during these events. NB: The ECMWF forecast domain for ACE is from 160˚E to 120˚W. Despite the risk reduction in some places, cyclones are still expected for countries that typically experience one or more named cyclones per year. A southward displacement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is typically observed during La Niña and the model guidance is supportive of this shift. The Outlook says this upcoming cyclone season is expected to emulate past cyclone seasons that are similar in background conditions to the present 2020/2021. Rainfall totals are most likely to be near normal (40% chance). Multi-model ensemble forecast rainfall anomaly (mm/day), January-March 2021; green (brown) shades indicate above (below) normal forecast rainfall, Figure 7. International Journal of Climatology, 34: 1157–1168. Fiji + 11 more. Most other islands to the east of the International Date Line are expected to have reduced TC risk for the season. The season officially runs from November 1, 2020 to April 30, 2021, however a tropical cyclone could form at any time between July 1, 2020 and June 30, 2021 and would count towards the season total. Expand your Outlook. All rights reservedPrivacy Policy, 2016, Free phone within New Zealand: 0800 RING NIWA (0800 746 464) Contact details, Principal Scientist - Forecasting and Media. On average, nearly half of the TCs that developed since the 1969/70 season have reached at least category 3 cyclones with mean wind speeds of at least 64 knots (118 km/h). Past seasons with conditions similar to present suggest several cyclones that develop could intensify to at least category 3 strength. Local; National; More... PEAC; Weather … Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook, Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2020, Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2019, Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2018, Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2017, Air quality monitoring with low-cost sensors, ICES Expert Working Group Meetings – April 2017, http://www.meteo.nc/espro/previcycl/cyclA.php, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67646-7. If the green line is inside the middle … Table 4: Expected TC counts including expected range (95% confidence intervals (CI)) for the 2020/21 Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone season (October 2020 update), difference from long term average TC count (1981-2010). There is a clear signal for elevated risk of cyclones developing and tracking west of the International Date Line during the late season. Table 1: Island Climate Update (ICU) consensus outlook for November 2020-April 2021 tropical cyclone activity based on combining NIWA analogue model, international dynamical climate model and TCO-SP deterministic statistical model outlook results. a Sub-regional models – where individual island TC climatology shows less than 1.5 TCs per season, geographically neighbouring exclusive economic zones (EEZs) have been merged to increase sample size (Click here for more information). doi:10.1002/joc.2412. December and January have exhibited a progression toward more wet weather, particularly in the North Island. The model, the Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Australia (TCO-AU), indicates normal to above normal tropical cyclone activity with 11 cyclones expected in total, Australia-wide. Track data are courtesy of International Best Tracks Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). The Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE forecast:  ECMWF seasonal guidance indicates 80% (near normal amounts) of seasonal accumulated cyclone energy, a metric derived from tropical cyclone intensity and duration, across the basin as a whole. Table 3: Previous analogue seasons and intensity of TCs that occurred in the Southwest Pacific during the November-April TC season . Analysis of tropical cyclone track sinuosity in the South Pacific region using ARCGIS. Mr. Chris NobleManager, Severe Weather ServicesTCWC (Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre) WellingtonMetService New ZealandTel: +64 4 470 1175. Figure 9. Funaki says people should prepare for above-normal rainfall during the 2020/2021 cyclone season. 20 October 2020. The spatial anomalies shown for this TC outlook strongly indicate reduced risk of cyclones for American Samoa, French Polynesia, and the Cook Islands. Several analogues identified also did not see the first named cyclone of the season until the New Year. The effects of ex-tropical cyclones can be spread over a large area, particularly if the decaying ex-tropical cyclone interacts with mid-to-high latitude weather systems. LA NIÑA TO TRIGGER HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THIS SUMMER. Another surge of trade winds is expected from mid-November. Increased frequency and more intense TC activity can be expected during the MJO 6-7 paired phase (Diamond and Renwick, 2015). Development of El Niño is highly unlikely. Schulferien im iCal Format zum Download 2020, 2021. The Eastern region outlook has a 67% chance of more tropical cyclones than average, with a 33% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average.The average number of tropical cyclones for this region is four, and about a quarter of tropical cyclones in the Eastern region make landfall. Significant wind, waves and rainfall are possible from ex-tropical cyclones. … BOM's severe weather outlook signals wet summer ahead, with flooding and more cyclones likely. Figure 4: Early season (November to January; top panel) and late season (February to April; bottom panel) anomaly plots for selected TC analogue seasons (data courtesy of International Best Tracks Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). Trends in the ocean-atmosphere system continued and New Zealand’s weather patterns became more aligned with La Niña throughout October. The 2020–21 Australian region cyclone season is the period of the year when tropical cyclones form in the Southern Indian Ocean and Pacific Oceans between 90°E and 160°E. Sky News Weather channel’s Chief Meteorologist Tom Saunders has today released the annual long-range Severe Weather Outlook 2020/2021, now in its tenth year. An area of normal to above normal activity is indicated by some of the guidance about French Polynesia. Forecast information from local and global guidance models is used to indicate the deviation from equal chance expected for the coming three-month period, with the following outcomes the most likely (but not certain) for this region: Central North Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu, Wellington. The historic tropical cyclones tracks selected for this outlook that passed close to New Zealand indicate a near equal probability of decaying ex-tropical cyclones tracking offshore to either the east or west of the North Island (see Figure 3). International Journal of Climatology, 35: 676-686. doi: 10.1002/joc.4012. Activity in general is expected to increase during the late season, especially for islands west of the International Date Line around the Coral Sea. Ben Macartney. Outlook 2021: Global Economic Outlook. 2021 Cyclone Entries Now Open. Tropical Cyclone Outlook: November 2020-April 2021 - YouTube Risk of TC occurrence is elevated for New Caledonia. Weekly statistical forecasts of TC genesis and TC activity for the SW Pacific basin are produced by MeteoFrance based on phasing of the MJO (Leroy and Wheeler, 2008). Entries are now available for all six public rides at the 2021 Cyclone Festival of Cycling. This provides confidence in the statistical outlook for expected cyclone strengths, and support for a conservative range of 3-4 severe tropical cyclones for this outlook. Figure 3: Plots of TC tracks and major tropical lows that were monitored for analogue seasons used in the 2020/21 seasonal forecast for the full season (November - April). For this season, elevated activity is expected for New Caledonia. The available information from international forecasting centres that issue global climate outlooks and ENSO diagnostics are integrated by NIWA’s National Climate Atmosphere and Hazards Centre. An ex-tropical cyclone climatology for Auckland, New Zealand. In the absence of any forecast guidance there would be an equal likelihood (33% chance) of the outcome being in any one of the three categories. International Journal of Climatology, 25: 1541–1565. Significant rainfall, damaging winds, … A new island-scale tropical cyclone outlook for southwest Pacific nations and territories. Diamond, H.J., A.M. Lorrey, and J.A. To find past analogues that describe the climate state leading into the upcoming TC season, the conditions for May 2020 through to the beginning of October 2020 were examined for the tropical Pacific. Category 5 strength cyclones, where sustained winds exceed 199 km/h, have occurred in some years (known as ‘analogue’ seasons) with similar conditions like what exists ahead of the 2020/21 season. A total of 9 named cyclones are expected this coming season (spread of 8-10 based on past analogues), which is close to or slightly below normal activity. Some of the decaying ex-tropical cyclone systems were also associated with high rainfall, damaging winds and amplified coastal wave conditions. Cyclone Harold struck Vanuatu this year with winds of up to 285 kph. Benjamin Curry … [1]Periods of extremely warm sea surface temperatures that persist for a prolonged period of time and can extend up to thousands of kilometres, Free phone within New Zealand: 0800 RING NIWA (0800 746 464), Copyright, NIWA. Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook. On average, one ex-tropical cyclone passes near the country each year. Some are expecting the favorable truckload fundamentals that were in place in the back half of 2020 to continue unchanged though 2021. Tropical cyclones have a significant impact across the Southwest Pacific, with the season officially starting in November and lasting until the end of April. Reduced TC activity is expected east of the International Dateline. Thus, this season is predicted to have a near average or below average number of TCs; Tropical cyclone numbers to the east of … Table 2: The average number of TCs passing close to the main South Pacific Island groups between November and April based on analogue guidance, but contains subjective assessments in some cases to be consistent with the wishes of the national meteorological services involved in generating this regional outlook. For the coming 2020/21 season, the deterministic TCO-SP outlook for Southwest Pacific TC season suggests 9 named TCs will form (probable range of 7-10), indicating normal to below normal activity for the basin when compared with the 1981-2010 average of 11.4 TCs (Table 4 and Figure 9). Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2020 . Global Macro Outlook 2021: The darkness before the dawn, our macro team forecasts a rebound in world GDP to 4.7% next year from -5% in 2020, while we forecast world trade volumes (in YoY terms) climbing back to 5% from the trough of -15% seen this summer. The NINO3.4 Index anomaly (in the central Pacific) for October (through the 25th) was -0.86˚C, decreasing from -0.71˚C last month. Nevertheless, the maritime region between New Caledonia and New Zealand appears to have elevated risk for TC activity this season, and extra caution for those navigating that area (especially during the late season) is warranted. Technical presentation – how is the Tropical Cyclone (TC) outlook developed – Methodology used – 15 min TC outlook –– 30 min - TC activity, geographical distribution, tracks - What happened the last time a similar ‘seasonal setup’ was forecast (impact of La Nina) - What can we say in respect of areas that may be more at risk of TC impacts; Update of the regional rainfall seasonal … Previous TC research has indicated cyclone track sinuosity reduces during La Niña (Philip Malsale, 2011). b Average TC counts calculated for November-April TC season. Outlook . Climate Scientist Nava Fedaeff and Meteorologist Ben Noll host the Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for November 2019-April 2020. Forecast Highlights. Updated: Dec 14, 2020, 12:37pm. At least three severe cyclones reaching category 3 or higher might occur anywhere across the region, so all communities should remain prepared. MAJOR BUSHFIRE THREAT FOR WESTERN AUSTRALIA . Probabilities are assigned in three categories: above average, near average, and below average. doi: 10.1002/joc.3753. La Niña has had a clear imprint on the upper-oceanic heat content pattern, with lower than normal temperatures in the east-central Pacific and continued above average warmth in the western Pacific. Cyclone analysis and outlook for Tonga The official 2020/2021 TC Season will begin on 01 November 2019 and will end on 30 April 2020. The table is therefore only generally indicative of how many cyclones might be expected for any given island group for the coming season. We used a high-quality set of past TC tracks from the International Best Tracks Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) which covers 135°E to 120°W longitude to draw on past TC track patterns for the seasonal outlook. Magee, A.D., Lorrey, A.M., Kiem, A.S., Colyvas, K. 2020. We have revised up our annual global GDP forecasts for all years in the … Sponsor the Cyclone. When dangerous weather is forecast, please heed the advice of your local meteorological service, civil defence, or disaster management offices. Elections 2020. Samoa National Statement Tropical Cyclone and Climate Outlook 2020-2021. Diamond, H.J., and J.A. Development of an enhanced tropical cyclone tracks database for the southwest Pacific from 1840-2011. International Journal of Climatology, 32: 2240–2250. The long-term TC climatology and the analogues we have identified indicate that a category 5 cyclone may occur (see Table 3). Below you will find the Samoa National Statement Tropical Cyclone and Climate Outlook 2020-2021 from the Samoa Meteorology Division for your information. Near or above normal MSLP is predicted to the east of Fiji, particularly near and east of Samoa and American Samoa (Figure 7 & 8). Fiji Meteorological Service: 2020/2021 Tropical Cyclone Outlook - “Near average to below average cyclone season” Format News and Press Release At present, sea surface temperature anomalies across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are cool (negative) while the central equatorial Pacific Ocean has recently been trending toward cool conditions. By Jeffrey Kleintop. We have subjectively rounded the total mean count upward from 8.2 to 9 this season to include the possibility of a category 5 cyclone based on current conditions and expected outcomes for the coming season. The spread for the estimated cyclone activity comes from the variation between five selected analogue seasons. ABC Weather / By Kate Doyle. The outlook for the region to the east of the International Date Line largely shows reduced risk overall, but small areas of increased TC track numbers clustered near the International Date Line close to Fiji. Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be below normal … A Microsoft 365 subscription offers an ad-free interface, custom domains, enhanced security options, the full desktop version of Office, and 1 TB of cloud storage. The interplay of hemispheric-scale atmospheric circulation with the timing of short-term Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity on a 30 to 50-day cycle has significant bearing on regional TC activity. Lorrey, A.M., G. Griffiths, N. Fauchereau, H.J. The cooler than average equatorial SSTs, associated with La Niña, are forecast to be enveloped by warmer than average SSTs about much of the Southwest Pacific. For the tropical cyclone season (November 2020-April 2021), NIWA’s Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook indicates that the risk for New Zealand is elevated. There is an equal probability of a decaying ex-tropical cyclone tracking to the east or west of the North Island based on historic track data (Figure 3). 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